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      4. Yang Yusheng: China's electric vehicle development strategy and the 12th Five-Year task report
        2010.07.19 Pageview:299

              Leaders, ladies and gentlemen, this problem I say today is the last two years I have been thinking of the problem, especially last year, academicians conference just ended, November 3rd, Premier Wen made a report to the Beijing Municipal Science and technology circles in the Great Hall of the people, which is mentioned, China's electric vehicle to leapfrog development. Leapfrog development how to develop the law? It is said that the development of Wen leapfrog some people do not agree, that now our country not to this point, the technical level not to this point, so add an opinion, to engage in hybrid, to do other things.


              Before the Spring Festival this year, the Ministry of industry and the Chinese Academy of Engineering in February 10th to hold a meeting, the exchange of views on the development of electric vehicles, the Academy of engineering, I still have a few academicians to do some preparation. We also have some discussion in the preparation, the discussion is from the beginning of this year, the CPPCC National Committee, teach Kewenwei Committee organized a forum to this forum, invited seven ministries to introduce them to the development of electric vehicles for ideas, seven ministries to speak I who have done some discussion. On the basis of this discussion, the four academicians wrote a proposal to the State Council, on the development of electric vehicles point of view.


              I speak here today is very important to adopt the views of our four people, the proposal is that I drafted the report, which also has the views of our other academicians in the inside. But because we consider the problem has limitations, there may still be a lot of problems, not to mention the exchange with you today.


              Today this is so few questions, the first General Secretary Hu in a June 7th speech that should give full play to the important role of science and technology, accelerating transformation of economic development and promoting the sound and rapid economic and social development. This is mentioned in the development of a lot, to promote a lot of science and technology, the first is the energy, which is included in the energy of electric vehicle technology. This is the opening ceremony of this year's meeting of academicians General Secretary Hu's speech. We should now discuss the urgent, to determine the development of China's electric vehicles and the 12th Five-Year task, the current view is very inconsistent, very different.


              We make a review of ten years, three vertical and three horizontal, vertical three is the fuel cell electric vehicles, pure electric vehicles, hybrid vehicles, cross three is the battery, motor, electric control. In Fifteen Five-Year Plan fuel cell vehicle funds most, ready for the Olympic Games in 11th Five-Year to secure the pure electric bus and FCEV car, now ten city 1000 hybrid cars become large subsidies. At the time of the opening ceremony was mentioned to the private car subsidies.


              With so few words summed up achievements and made great progress, and narrow the gap between the foreign, to lay the foundation for development. We are ten years of the largest and most difficult to give priority to development, rather than the small, easy priority development. Focus rotation, the vehicle is heavy, the battery is not fine, our country to the proportion of vehicle and battery funding, the vehicle is far greater than the battery.


              Look at the situation in Japan, Japan's TOYOTA hybrid car after ten years of development, a variety of models, the Prius has sold nearly 2 million units, but small electric vehicles in Japan MITSUBISHI Nissan development. Last year, as the Japanese government proposed innovative energy technology plan, the electric car and battery technology have a schedule, until 2050, there is a general plan, the tram capacity will be increased to 2030 will increase seven times, the price of batteries will be reduced to 4/40, in the process to upgrade to 500 kilometers. From now on the hybrid electric vehicles will to be turned to plug-in electric vehicles, and then promote the pure electric vehicleLook at the situation in the United States, when the Bush administration proposed hydrogen economy, fuel cell electric vehicles as the main development, 2006 changed, the plug-in as the primary development status of oil electric vehicles as a long-term development goals.


               Obama proposed next generation battery and electric car plans, $2 billion 400 million for electric vehicles. Plug-in hybrid varieties, Extended range style electric vehicles are valued, there is no fuel cell electric vehicles and hybrid electric vehicles. Battery and its materials into the 1 billion 500 million U.S. dollars, is 5 times the vehicle, the battery does not have nickel hydrogen batteries, and later added to the fuel cell.


              Let me talk about the development of electric vehicles in our country view, the development of strategic emerging industries is to seize the commanding heights of economic science and technology, the development of electric vehicles first to select the type of. Electric vehicle types have said is vertical, a subdivision can be divided into fuel cell electric vehicles, pure electric vehicles, including pure electric vehicle and extended range electric vehicle, hybrid electric vehicles, including electric&oil and oil&electric. To be classified from power, in front of the three motor only a driving force behind the two can be called hybrid, we develop electric vehicles must truly fuel saving, emission reduction, affordable, good use. Just the opening ceremony also said that now subsidies for the future does not subsidize, if you can not slowly to the development of non subsidies, people still can not afford to buy, or can not develop. To achieve the fundamental change in the way of development, economic and sustainable development, this is the development of electric vehicles to choose the route.Fuel cell electric vehicle was Bush said to be the ultimate development goal, but also have the disadvantage of high price, the market is too small, and difficult to maintain, hydrogen storage, complex system, life is not long enough, and platinum resources is not enough, a car with more than 20 grams of platinum, 50 thousand cars with a ton of platinum this is difficult to scale.


              Pure electric vehicle, the structure is relatively simple, save fuel, can also use the valley electricity, wind power, the most simple, no oil, gas, water, the body is cheap, only a general framework, there are resources and technical basis. Now each city is the bus as the focus of research objectives, a reasonable charge of the mileage is about 150 km, and then a lot of high installed battery. Therefore, the amount of charging stations to be built for the battery, the government subsidies are very heavy, a car 500 thousand.


              We made a preliminary calculation, the battery dropped to 3000 dollars at one time, and the cycle life of more than 1500 times, the car can be guaranteed, and now the distance from this standard is still quite distant. Cars traveling 50 to 80 kilometers to meet the requirements of most users in our country, which is in a big city to do a travel distance statistics. In terms of pure electric vehicles, we believe that the smile, low speed, short range of electric vehicles should be a priority development. The reason is that the car is light, small, low power consumption, simple structure, easy charging, and the battery is less, the price is relatively low, easy to sell, can even use hydrogen battery. And the battery factory is less risk, can self development. A small electric car, all the contradictions are easy to resolve. Vigorously develop the popularity of cars, miniature, low speed, short is said, to meet the needs of customers, provide shelter to arrest tool, we want to learn from the lessons of electric bicycles, electric bicycles are free, small electric government departments must take the initiative to guideLarge and medium-sized car at issue is how the development of pure electric bus battery, while single charge process is not high enough, the construction of charging stations for power plants, land and spare batteries into a large, expensive battery, energy, life, safety, the group still needs to be improved. Mid-range pure electric car speed, travel can be, but hard to market, fuel-efficient hybrid buses rarely, service life is not optimistic. Some enterprises with foreign companies not engage in electric vehicles assembled to give an account of joint venture, and go to the original path above.


              Power battery performance should be improved in the application of electric vehicles, in the current power battery cost control, large and medium-sized electric vehicle industry needs to rely on national large subsidies. To develop pure electric vehicles must vigorously improve the battery cost.


              Under the current circumstances, in addition to pure electric vehicles, the large and medium-sized cars have three possible transition modes for choice:


              The first, the hybrid electric vehicle, the Japanese HEV as the representative.

              Second, plug-in, the United States to promote.Third, extended range electric vehicles.


               Which is the most suitable model for China? Each one according to his lights.


               Hybrid electric vehicle, it is internal combustion system and motor drive system with a transmission mechanism, the planetary wheel gear mechanism with two power comprehensive regulation between the speed. It saves fuel not much, two power combination is more complex, the processing requirement is high, our country does not have the advantage of high specific power battery requirements, but the price is expensive, because the processing of complex. Now that Japan is going to turn, the U. S. government does not support. Electric vehicles in our country, should no longer step hybrid Japan's footsteps, not to buy parts to assemble, but not the joint ventures of hybrid.


              Plug in hybrid electric vehicle, 50 km without oil, better than HEV. It is the use of long-distance full use of internal combustion engine, the fuel consumption is relatively high, complex internal combustion engine and the electric motor two power system, the price is more expensive, but there are also big horse car problems.


              The extended range electric vehicle, the figure inside the dotted line off is one of the most simple and pure electric vehicles, plus a tank is in pure electric vehicles, fuel supply to the motor, battery and motor powered by internal combustion engine, generator. It is only a motor power, it is said to be a series of mixed, so there is no problem of string mixing, driving the battery before charging, driving a small power generation, the best conditions for power generation. The driving engine generator and battery for battery charging, in car generated power to extend the mileage, although still use oil, but oil saving is more than 50%.There are new examples of the exhibition today, I haven't had time to come in.


              First, to add lead-acid battery capacitor as energy, with a dynamic control function of 5 kW generator power supply, the manufacturing cost of about 800 thousand yuan, 50 thousand yuan with 100 thousand yuan of lead-acid battery, super capacitor, service life can reach more than 5 years. One hundred kilometers fuel consumption in the 50 km when less than 19 liters. This is from Beijing to Yangzhou two days 1100 kilometers, the middle of a charge, to Yangzhou held a grand welcoming ceremony.


              Lithium ion batteries for energy, 12M bus, car fuel consumption is 40 liters 100 km, with a 1.9 liter engine well, even a generator, power supply, fuel quantity can reach more than 50%.Advantages of large and medium sized range extended passenger cars:

              1, do not have with too large capacity battery, and can travel.

              2, the battery can not lose power and discharge, prolong life.

              3, do not use lithium-ion batteries and lead batteries, the price is low.

              4, the parking lot charging does not lead to charging stations, save the land.

              5, do not need to charge, change the turnover battery, low input.

              6, does not require a large number of equipment and personnel for the operation of the services.

              7, the traditional car facilities and achievements can be inherited, and processing is relatively easy.

              8, the existing technology can save more than 50%, the operation cost is low.

              9, the government subsidy burden is light, and easy transition to no subsidies.It is better than the plug-in electric car, we think it is the best kind of transition car.


              The route of China's electric vehicle development and the suggestions of the 12th Five-Year mission:

               First, vigorously develop the micro and small, low speed, short range of pure electric passenger cars as a breakthrough, and gradually improve the level and

               Second, Large and medium buses and medium and high grade passenger cars are the main types of transition vehicles with enhanced renge pure electric drive.

               Third, to lay a solid foundation for the new generation of pure electric vehicles in the direction of development by leaps and bounds.Let me talk about 12 initiatives to promote the development of pure electric vehicles.

               1, determine the development route of China's pure electric cars, cemented together to promote the electric vehicle industry consensus development.

               2, traction "big" factory, the production of pure electric vehicles and the proportion of each year to increase the proportion of cars.

               3, treat the wild plant, as the main force of the development of pure electric vehicles in China, and actively and steadily issued a quasi birth certificate".

               4, the implementation of the promotion of pure electric vehicles to encourage policy, improve the electric vehicle market to accelerate the promotion of measures to build charging piles.

               5, further deepen the reform of fuel tax.

               6, stop subsidies for the car to replace the old, and now the car is selling very fire, and then to subsidize the sale of more fire, or save the money to save the electric car.

               7, allow a variety of power, energy model in the development of fair competition, and finally by the market to do the referee.
               8, the government should stand in the height of the overall situation, to create a fair competitive conditions, do not give people the impression that the big factory.

               9, to saving quantity as the basis, not to the production cost as the basis.

               10, accelerate the development of lithium ion batteries, the United States voted 1 billion 500 million development of the battery, our country how to do? We suggest four of the funding of 2 billion yuan, the major electric power lithium ion battery research and development projects, to enhance the technical level of power battery production, improve the industrial chain, to achieve localization of diaphragm and electrolyte, capture the battery module group technology, improve the battery safety and consistency of battery life up to 1500 times, to carry out original research, comprehensive promotion the lithium ion battery research and development capabilities, to provide the core technology with independent intellectual property rights for 5 to 10 years after the pure electric vehicle battery. To study the new power battery.
                11, Enlarge and strengthen several power battery factories, set the threshold, three years tax reduction and tax exemption. 5 to 10 years, 5 to 10 battery plants with an annual output of 5 billion Ah can be built, with 500 thousand cars or 1 million mini cars. The power type lead-acid batteries should display their skills in electric vehicles.

                12, support the production of battery production equipment. Now is the new opportunities for China's pole industry, the future of a strong battery industry to lay a good foundation.

               Development of electric vehicles, the concept should be updated, the four concepts to be updated.


               Concept one, with the fuel car index requirements of pure electric vehicles, driving range, acceleration time, maximum speed and fuel vehicles to be compared to set high standards. Scold the insufficient of pure electric vehicles, demote copycat version of the nickname. We want to progress in development.The concept of two, the current automobile industry is the task of saving, this sentence is not wrong, our country is now an annual output of 13 million 640 thousand cars, should fuel, but is actually an excuse to optimize the traditional car, to develop or introduce hybrid vehicles, if their development of hybrid vehicles, good words said to the introduction of technology for hybrid electric vehicle fuel the slogan, this is not desirable. There's a problem with excuses. The problem is a hybrid of our country can save much oil, the automobile industry now has the measurement results, I do not speak, in addition to complex structure, high cost, BYD dual-mode vehicles 168 thousand and 900, 50 thousand countries of Shenzhen, up 30 thousand, more than 80 thousand also dig, dig more than 80 thousand to buy pure electric vehicles, how many such customers, but also wait and see. In the face of foreign products and range extenders, we have much more competitive. We want to change the change, serious research, practical analysis and comparison, with data to illustrate the problem. To be self reliant development, grasp the core technology, the continuous development of an enterprise, if does not grasp the core technology is not sustainable development, not to use foreign parts assembly, not to engage in joint ventures, should dispel the idea of shortcuts. HEV is the behavior of enterprises can be developed, but the government not to stir up the gas.The concept of three, Pure electric vehicles should be high-end if they want to do so. Analyze its source, popular car technology is low, do this kind of car is the identity of a large factory, now these cars are small factory in doing, wild factory in doing. In addition, Car small profit micro will pursue high profits first. This does not necessarily exist, recently I got a data, our factory profit margins are about 2%, the highest is about 4% in Shanghai, several other factories profit is about 2%, the profit is not high, but do cars, car profits may be more than 10% to 20%. A few years ago, the small displacement was not allowed to go on the road, but now this kind of heart still has a continuation, a kind of vanity, it is not graceful to walk on the road, it is not Chinese face. The result is that large factories know themselves, do not do small cars, but also afraid of others to do, willing to do a lot of cars, but not qualified, anxious. Not to issue a quasi birth certificate, but objectively help big factories to monopolize. The mid-range cars have been advertised, but the market is very small. Therefore, to change their minds, government departments should emancipate their minds, open their hands, save energy and reduce emissions, serve the masses, and overcome vanity.The concept of four, charging is as fast as refueling. It is not desirable to charge too fast, because fast charging requires a large amount of expansion of the grid, and the impact on the grid is great, to build large chargers, if an electric bus 200 kwh, if an hour charged with 200 kwh of electricity is enough, if it takes six minutes to flush out, to build large chargers, and affect battery life, And to change the concept of night charging, use electricity grid valley, for grid peak-shaving decentralized, now at night, wind power is difficult to get on the grid, night charging is the use of wind energy. Charging at night is conducive to stable operation of nuclear power.


               The essence of electric vehicle charging at night is the main peak of nuclear power, wind power at night, instead of coal. Recently Web said that the electric car is not a low carbon economy, our country is now 80% of coal power generation, or the use of coal. To do a careful calculation, even if the use of coal to power electric vehicles to charge, but also to save 20% to 30% of the carbon emissions. If it is to use wind power and nuclear power, emissions will be more less.The concept of four, charging is as fast as refueling. It is not desirable to charge too fast, because fast charging requires a large amount of expansion of the grid, and the impact on the grid is great, to build large chargers, if an electric bus 200 kwh, if an hour charged with 200 kwh of electricity is enough, if it takes six minutes to flush out, to build large chargers, and affect battery life, And to change the concept of night charging, use electricity grid valley, for grid peak-shaving decentralized, now at night, wind power is difficult to get on the grid, night charging is the use of wind energy. Charging at night is conducive to stable operation of nuclear power.


               The essence of electric vehicle charging at night is the main peak of nuclear power, wind power at night, instead of coal. Recently Web said that the electric car is not a low carbon economy, our country is now 80% of coal power generation, or the use of coal. To do a careful calculation, even if the use of coal to power electric vehicles to charge, but also to save 20% to 30% of the carbon emissions. If it is to use wind power and nuclear power, emissions will be more less.There are a few words in the end:

               First, the national interest is higher than the local interest.

               Second, the long-term interests of enterprises is higher than the immediate interests of the president.

               Third, the government departments to represent the interests of the people.

               Fourth, speed up the unity of thinking, in accordance with the interests of the whole people.

               
          I would like to thank Chen Qingquan, Chen Liquan, Zheng Mianping three academicians of the discussion.

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