First, the new energy vehicle deterministic rapid growth
New energy vehicles deterministic rapid growth, scarcity of property highlights, the increase in 2015 sales forecast to 25--30 million units, the main reason is that:
The second half of the year is always the car sales season, new energy vehicles are no exception: from seasonal distribution, the second half is always the car sales season, the second half of last year, sales of new energy vehicles is 3 times in the first half, the gap significantly. In the first half of this year, the new energy automobile production and sales of nearly eighty thousand units, the second half of the data will be further growth;
Battery capacity bottlenecks: power battery gradually break through the first half of the year has been in short supply in the state, resulting in new energy vehicles can not be timely peatlands, along with the battery business expansion project put into operation, the battery capacity is gradually break through the bottleneck;
New business model: stimulating new business model is the rise of the new characteristics of the new energy vehicle market, time-sharing leasing has already started in our country, taxi software introduced new energy vehicles will be the growth of demand in the next important point;
Local subsidies gradually in the second half in place: "12th Five-Year" planning assessment due to local government pressure, the second half is expected to have more local subsidies supporting landing, can directly pull up production and sales in the second half;
Two, industry fundamentals have been fundamental changes
The new energy automobile production and sales unpopular, Chinese will become the world's largest market in June: global electric car sales, 42 thousand scale approaching record highs, BYD won the sales champion, China 7 models 20 finalists from the first half of the year; production and sales, China more than the United States to become the world's largest new energy vehicle market basically no suspense;
Industrial capital large-scale enter, for highly optimistic about the prospect of new energy vehicles: 1-7 months into the new energy automotive industry capital scale of nearly billion, a single power battery link will have about 15 companies a total investment of 40 billion yuan, in the case of downward subsidy clear investment volume shows that industry side for the development of the market space is highly promising.
The performance of the company downstream industry chain began to release: after the system combing the industrial chain, the downstream demand more than 3 times the volume of cases, the middle four electric (battery, motor, electric control, electric air conditioning) and related equipment serious shortage situation, volume performance obvious; while the upstream materials and resource products in the new energy automotive sector business accounted for ratio increased rapidly, bringing new vitality.
1.New energy vehicle plate elasticity contrast
2.New energy vehicle plate elasticity contrast
3.New energy automotive industry chain panorama
4. New energy vehicle sales forecast
China made 2025 plan clearly put forward, by 2020, China's own brand new energy vehicle sales exceeded 1 million, by 2025, the new energy vehicles annual sales of 3 million;
By 2020, the power battery, drive motor and other key systems to reach the international advanced level, in the domestic market share of 80%, with the vehicle volume, the industry chain also ushered in six years ten times the development space.
1, the lower reaches of the vehicle market - micro car
Market space: micro car refers to meet the "double 80" standard, to enjoy the state subsidies of A00 cars, new energy vehicles in 2014 sales of 28129, is expected to 2020, the mini car sales will reach 320 thousand units.
Market structure: mainly Thai, Chery, time and space, and five xindayang condi to carve up the market, because the purchase and use of low cost, rapid promotion; mini car market future is likely to face two challenges, one is the national electric vehicle standardization after low-speed car upgrade, two is aimed at the national electric vehicle market for passenger cars sinking.
Future development: micro car competition is the core of the use of the scene, the positioning of the household use of second, three car; itself and the emerging business model fit, sub lease and taxi software to open a new market space;
2, the lower reaches of the vehicle market - bus
Market space: 2014 passenger car sales 21 thousand, market promotion from three power: local government to promote the direct transmission of pressure, bus fuel subsidies to new energy bus tilt, the new business model driven. China's commercial use of the development of the road, is expected to 2020, new energy vehicles will reach 200 thousand annual sales;
Market structure: bus market threshold is high, the basic is the internal competition. 2014 Yutong occupy more than 30% market share, followed by BYD and Nanjing Jinlong, sales of the top five companies a total market share of more than 60%, a short period of time, BYD and the position of the first echelon Yutong Jinlong Department in difficult to shake;
Future development: the market compared to the traditional bus, new energy bus is expected to form a direct financing lease, both traditional and three line operation model, financial leasing can make the bus company to achieve asset light operations, companies have been tried, compared to Europe and the United States, the proportion of financial leasing business in China is low, is expected to achieve a breakthrough in new energy the automobile field.
3, the lower reaches of the vehicle market - passenger car
Market space: passenger car by the consumer driven, the promotion of the key is to improve the charging facilities, wave number limit line of preferential policies, the purchase and use of cost reduction, safety and performance improvement. 2014 passenger car sales of 25553, is expected in 2020, new energy passenger car sales will reach 400 thousand, in the four models in the most flexible, the most extensive market space.
The pattern of the market: the market is dominated by BYD, BAIC, JAC, SAIC four leading BYD, the layout of the earliest and most complete models, BYD Qin star vehicle sales way ahead "74" strategy, total market coverage; Beiqi new energy firm electric road, rely on resource integration sales increased rapidly; SAIC and Jianghuai belong to the second tier already, formulated the corresponding development plan.
Future development: Although the market dominated by domestic car prices, the future of foreign capital and joint venture model will gradually enrich the market impact, while Internet companies set off upsurge of cars, BAT, LETV etc. have begun operations, compared to mini cars and buses, passenger car market is the biggest uncertainty about the future.
4, the lower reaches of the vehicle market - logistics vehicles
Market space: the rapid development of the logistics industry is the basis for the rapid growth of demand for urban logistics vehicles, the new energy logistics vehicles in 2014 only 500, we expect sales in 2020 is expected to reach 80 thousand units.
Market status: traditional vehicles pollute the environment, the city limit line, in the city of logistics standardization is seriously insufficient, the efficiency is low; and the new energy vehicle logistics zero emissions, and enjoy state subsidies, which can replace the traditional logistics to get car license, is the effective solution to meet the needs of the parties;
Future development: many domestic enterprises have been aimed at the logistics market, in addition to BAIC, SAIC, Dongfeng, BYD, Yutong and other powerful enterprises, there are also emerging enterprises to participate in the competition, the domestic new energy vehicle logistics has just started, will become the major enterprises for the next battle.